Thursday Night CFB: Best Bets (by game)

Boise State at USF — 5:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Plays I like

• Maddux Madsen over 233.5 passing yards
  USF was much softer through the air than on the ground last season: they allowed 3,624 opponent passing yards (≈279 ypg), one of the shakier FBS marks, and were middle of the pack vs. the run. Boise replaces Ashton Jeanty (NFL) and projects to lean more on Madsen behind a veteran OL. Market consensus sits in the 230–235 range for Madsen’s pass yards tonight.
• Matt Lauter (Boise TE) 5+ receptions (plus money) or Anytime TD (+155 to +170)
  Lauter is the Broncos’ most reliable chain-mover/red-zone option. He set Boise’s single-season TE reception record in 2024 (47 for 619, 7 TD) and returns as a focal point. DraftKings’ game page shows Lauter listed among receiving/TD props; market pricing today has ATD around +155 to +170 and a receiving-yards line in the high-40s, which tracks with a 5+ catches ladder at plus money. If you want one ticket, I prefer ATD given the red-zone role.

Why it makes sense
USF’s front seven is deeper in 2025 (added transfers up front), but the secondary is still the question. If the Bulls play the run better, that only nudges Boise to the air — straight into our QB/TE angles.

Odds/lines notes

• DraftKings event hub is live for Boise @ USF with full props menus. If your book hangs Madsen 230.5/231.5, I’d still play it.

East Carolina at NC State — 7:00 p.m. ET (ACCN)

Play I like

• Anthony Smith (ECU) 60+ receiving yards
  Smith was ECU’s No. 1 last year (41-799-6; 19.5 YPR) and hit the Biletnikoff watch list this month. Pirates are double-digit dogs on the road with a total in the low 60s — perfect game script for targets and deep shots. Market has his baseline in the 55–60 range tonight. I prefer the 60+ milestone at close to even money.

Why it makes sense
Volume + role. ECU should be chasing points against a favored Wolfpack (-14, O/U 61.5), and Smith is their best vertical threat. Camp reports and previews have consistently pegged him as the top option again.

Odds/lines notes

• DraftKings game page shows spread/total and player prop ladders; if 60+ disappears, I’m fine pivoting to over 55.5 receiving yards.

Jacksonville State at UCF — 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

Play I like

• UCF -20.5 (sprinkle, not a hammer)
  It’s a big number, but with the roster turnover at JSU and UCF’s talent/resets under Scott Frost, the Knights have the speed/physicality edge at home. Market consensus has sat right at -20.5 today.

Why it makes sense
Even amid UCF’s transition, previews expect the Knights to control on the lines and create short fields. JSU lost a lot and is stepping into a jump in class on the road. (If you hate the spread, consider a UCF 1H derivative instead.)

Nebraska vs Cincinnati (Arrowhead) — 8:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Plays I like

• Dylan Raiola 240+ passing yards & 2+ passing TDs (same-game build)
  Holgorsen is in his first full year calling NU’s offense and wants this thing vertical. Over his first four games under Holgo last fall, Raiola completed 72% and averaged ~225 ypg — now he gets Year 2 comfort, a neutral/fast track, and a Bearcats front anchored by Dontay Corleone that’s stout inside. That combination often pushes offenses to throw. Markets show Raiola’s passing line ~243.5 and 2+ TD widely available across books. DraftKings’ event page lists the Raiola yardage ladder (150+ through 275+ available).
• Cyrus Allen (CIN) 40+ receiving yards
  New WR room, but Allen’s speed/slot-out versatility has him projected to start. His milestone sits around 38.5–40+ in the market, and in a back-and-forth script he needs only a couple of chunk plays to clear it.

Why it makes sense

• Nebraska side: Holgorsen track record + spread (NU -6.5) + neutral site → incentive to keep the gas on. With Cincinnati’s identity tied to the interior (Corleone), Nebraska’s best path is Raiola distributing to Key/Barney/Hunter.
• Cincinnati side: Brendan Sorsby is mobile (rush usage can extend drives), and Allen’s been a camp riser, with starting reps and prior big-play history before A&M. The 40+ milestone gives us multiple outs (script or one explosive catch).

Odds/lines notes

• DraftKings has Nebraska -6.5, total 51.5–52.5 depending on the page hit; Raiola yard ladders are visible on the DK event hub. (If DK won’t deal 2+ TDs in your state, other books are hanging it in the -140 to -120 range; shop it.)

Quick “play to” guide

• Madsen pass yards: play to 236.5.
• Lauter ATD: any +140 or better; 5+ receptions down to +110.
• Anthony Smith 60+: play at -120 or better; otherwise o55.5.
• UCF -20.5: okay down to -21 (-110) only.
• Raiola pass yds: okay to o249.5; 2+ TD down to -135.
• Cyrus Allen 40+: play to -120.

Notes & receipts (for the curious)

• USF pass defense allowed 3,624 yards in 2024 (≈279 ypg); run defense was relatively sturdier — that’s why we’re targeting Boise’s passing game and TE.
• Boise personnel: Lauter returns off 47-619-7 and is TE1 on the depth chart; Boise media notes highlight his usage and record.
• Game lines/props: DraftKings event hubs are live for Boise-USF, ECU-NC State, and Nebraska-Cincinnati with spread/total and player ladders (yardage, TDs, receptions). Market snapshots today: ECU +14 / 61.5, NU -6.5 / 51.5-52.5.
• ECU’s Anthony Smith: 2024 line: 41-799-6, Biletnikoff watch list 8/6/25; multiple local previews confirm WR1 status.
• Nebraska offense: Holgorsen in Year 1 full install; NU’s official bio details his four-game stint last year and Raiola’s efficiency under him.
• Cincinnati front: Depth chart and coverage pieces underscore Corleone as the anchor inside — a run-game deterrent that often nudges opponents to the air.

Final card (concise)

• Boise/USF: Madsen o233.5 PY; Lauter ATD (+155 to +170) or 5+ rec (plus money).
• ECU/NC State: Anthony Smith 60+ rec yds (or o55.5).
• Jax St/UCF: UCF -20.5 (smaller stake).
• Neb/Cincy: Raiola o240+ PY and 2+ pass TDs (build), plus Cyrus Allen 40+ rec yds.

Good luck tonight and as always, line-shop, set limits, and bet responsibly.